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Thread: What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?

  1. #1
    JoeSpareBedroom
    Guest JoeSpareBedroom's Avatar

    Default What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?

    "C. E. White" <cewhite3@remove...............> wrote in message
    news:4ae70c7c$1@kcnews01...
    >A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all
    >Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to be a
    >very low number to me. What do other think?
    >
    > I would have thought given Toyota's increase in sales over the last twenty
    > years they would have had more like 90% of the cars sold in the last 20
    > years still on the road. Toyota sales have been increasing over the last
    > twenty years, so a higher percentage of Toyotas will be newer models.
    > Since a high percentage of Toyotas are newer vehicles that are more likely
    > to still be on the road, the overall percentage of Toyotas sold in the
    > last 20 years will be higher (becasue of the newer car bias). For GM, the
    > math works the other way. GM sales have been stagnent or actually
    > declining over the last 20 years, so a higher percentage of their cars
    > will be older and therefore less likely to still be on the road. I am sure
    > the 80% number is based on registrations, so it might be that it over
    > estimates the number actually in daily use - or under estimates it in
    > cases where cars are used off road (or illeagally) and not registered.
    >
    > Does anyone have any actual numbers?


    State motor vehicle deparments probably have the data, although it might
    need to be massaged in order to make sense of it. If magazines & newspapers
    can get the information, you probably can too. That's a big "if", though. It
    might cost money.

  2. #2
    Tegger
    Guest Tegger's Avatar

    Default What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?

    "C. E. White" <cewhite3@remove...............> wrote in news:4ae70c7c$1
    @kcnews01:

    > A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all
    > Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to
    > be a very low number to me. What do other think?
    >


    I guess it depends where you live. In my area (the Rust Belt of north-
    eastern North America), Toyota's number seems impossibly high, unless that
    missing 20% is all concentrated up here.

    My personal guess, based on my visual observations while on the road each
    day, is that overall the percentage of cars (not just Toyotas) still in
    daily use after 20 years would be more like one to five percent.

    I infrequently see cars (of any make) older than about 1992. Cars older
    than about 1989 are almost non-existent around here.

    --
    Tegger

  3. #3
    Mike Hunter
    Guest Mike Hunter's Avatar

    Default What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?

    Most Toyota ads are somewhat deceptive and some are even bogus. Remember
    when the Tundra first was introduced? Toyota made a lot of claims that led
    some to believe it had things other full size trucks did not have. The
    fact was Toyota was finally offering a truck that was closer to the standers
    of domestic brands. Then of course there was always the bogus, made in
    America claim, when it has always only been assembled in the US, of mostly
    parts and materials that were not from the US but from Canada and Japan.

    "C. E. White" <cewhite3@remove...............> wrote in message
    news:4ae70c7c$1@kcnews01...
    >A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all
    >Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to be a
    >very low number to me. What do other think?
    >
    > I would have thought given Toyota's increase in sales over the last twenty
    > years they would have had more like 90% of the cars sold in the last 20
    > years still on the road. Toyota sales have been increasing over the last
    > twenty years, so a higher percentage of Toyotas will be newer models.
    > Since a high percentage of Toyotas are newer vehicles that are more likely
    > to still be on the road, the overall percentage of Toyotas sold in the
    > last 20 years will be higher (becasue of the newer car bias). For GM, the
    > math works the other way. GM sales have been stagnent or actually
    > declining over the last 20 years, so a higher percentage of their cars
    > will be older and therefore less likely to still be on the road. I am sure
    > the 80% number is based on registrations, so it might be that it over
    > estimates the number actually in daily use - or under estimates it in
    > cases where cars are used off road (or illeagally) and not registered.
    >
    > Does anyone have any actual numbers? I am confident that 100% of the NEW
    > vehicles I purchased in the last 20 years are still on the road, but maybe
    > I am an exception.
    >
    > Here is sort of what I am thinking....NOT REAL NUMBERS -
    >
    > For a manufacturer with increasing sales (5% increase per year)
    >
    > Year Original Percent Total
    > Sold Sales On road On Road
    > 1990 500000 33% 165000
    > 1991 525000 38% 199500
    > 1992 551250 43% 237038
    > 1993 578813 48% 277830
    > 1994 607753 53% 322109
    > 1995 638141 58% 370122
    > 1996 670048 63% 422130
    > 1997 703550 68% 478414
    > 1998 738728 72% 531884
    > 1999 775664 76% 589505
    > 2000 814447 80% 651558
    > 2001 855170 84% 718343
    > 2002 897928 88% 790177
    > 2003 942825 91% 857970
    > 2004 989966 93% 920668
    > 2005 1039464 96% 997886
    > 2006 1091437 97% 1058694
    > 2007 1146009 98% 1123089
    > 2008 1203310 99% 1191277
    > 2009 1263475 99% 1250840
    > Total 16532977 80% 13154033
    >
    > For a manufacturer with slightly decreasing sales (1% decrease per year),
    > but same percent still on the road:
    >
    > 1990 1263475 33% 416947
    > 1991 1250840 38% 475319
    > 1992 1238332 43% 532483
    > 1993 1225949 48% 588455
    > 1994 1213689 53% 643255
    > 1995 1201552 58% 696900
    > 1996 1189537 63% 749408
    > 1997 1177641 68% 800796
    > 1998 1165865 72% 839423
    > 1999 1154206 76% 877197
    > 2000 1142664 80% 914131
    > 2001 1131238 84% 950240
    > 2002 1119925 88% 985534
    > 2003 1108726 91% 1008941
    > 2004 1097639 93% 1020804
    > 2005 1086662 96% 1043196
    > 2006 1075796 97% 1043522
    > 2007 1065038 98% 1043737
    > 2008 1054387 99% 1043843
    > 2009 1043843 99% 1033405
    > Total 23007003 73% 16707535
    >
    > The net is, manufacturers that have similar reliability can have
    > significantly different percentages of vehicles built in the last 20 years
    > still on the road. Ergo, the Toyota's ad claim is at best meaningless, at
    > worst deliberately misleading....but then I've always assumed that the
    > Chevy (or sometimes Dodge) ads that clam their trucks are the most
    > reliable and longest lasting (based on registration data) are deliberately
    > misleading. So, I don't think Toyota is being espeically misleading, but I
    > wonder how many people understand the ad? I'll bet many people think
    > Toyota is saying 80% of 20 year old Toyotas are still on the road, instead
    > of 80% of the Toyotas sold in the last twenty years....isn't marketing
    > wonderful. There is a huge difference in the two statements.
    >
    > Ed
    >

  4. #4
    Mike Hunter
    Guest Mike Hunter's Avatar

    Default What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?

    If one really wants to see who actually has the vehicles with the longer
    overall longevity, go to some of the old car shows. Seldom will one see any
    of the Japanese sedans at those shows.

    Plenty of domestics sedans and sporty cars, as well as English and European
    old cars, even Italian cars. Rarely will one see anything from Toyota or
    the other Japanese manufactures, except a rare RX7or "Z" car.

    "Joe$#itForBrains" <newstrash@frontiernet.net> wrote in message
    news:08EFm.33212$eJ4.26377@newsfe07.iad...
    > "C. E. White" <cewhite3@remove...............> wrote in message
    > news:4ae70c7c$1@kcnews01...
    >>A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all
    >>Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to be
    >>a
    >>very low number to me. What do other think?
    >>
    >> I would have thought given Toyota's increase in sales over the last
    >> twenty
    >> years they would have had more like 90% of the cars sold in the last 20
    >> years still on the road. Toyota sales have been increasing over the last
    >> twenty years, so a higher percentage of Toyotas will be newer models.
    >> Since a high percentage of Toyotas are newer vehicles that are more
    >> likely
    >> to still be on the road, the overall percentage of Toyotas sold in the
    >> last 20 years will be higher (becasue of the newer car bias). For GM, the
    >> math works the other way. GM sales have been stagnent or actually
    >> declining over the last 20 years, so a higher percentage of their cars
    >> will be older and therefore less likely to still be on the road. I am
    >> sure
    >> the 80% number is based on registrations, so it might be that it over
    >> estimates the number actually in daily use - or under estimates it in
    >> cases where cars are used off road (or illeagally) and not registered.
    >>
    >> Does anyone have any actual numbers?

    >
    >
    > State motor vehicle deparments probably have the data, although it might
    > need to be massaged in order to make sense of it. If magazines &
    > newspapers
    > can get the information, you probably can too. That's a big "if", though.
    > It
    > might cost money.
    >
    >
    >

  5. #5
    JoeSpareBedroom
    Guest JoeSpareBedroom's Avatar

    Default What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?

    "Mike Hunter" <Mikehunt2@lycos,com> wrote in message
    news:4ae73098$0$18744$ce5e7886@news-radius.ptd.net...
    > One has to wonder what difference our friend Joe$#itForBrains thinks it
    > makes as to why people chose to buy what they buy with their own money?


    It matters because in another thread, CE White made claims about who buys
    what brands of trucks.

  6. #6
    JoeSpareBedroom
    Guest JoeSpareBedroom's Avatar

    Default What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?

    "Mike Hunter" <Mikehunt2@lycos,com> wrote in message
    news:4ae72deb$0$18744$ce5e7886@news-radius.ptd.net...
    > If one really wants to see who actually has the vehicles with the longer
    > overall longevity, go to some of the old car shows. Seldom will one see
    > any of the Japanese sedans at those shows.
    >
    > Plenty of domestics sedans and sporty cars, as well as English and
    > European old cars, even Italian cars. Rarely will one see anything from
    > Toyota or the other Japanese manufactures, except a rare RX7or "Z" car.


    Car shows are not a valid source of the statistics necessary for determining
    longevity. You either didn't take a stats course, or you failed the course
    you took.

  7. #7
    m6onz5a
    Guest m6onz5a's Avatar

    Default What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?

    On Oct 27, 11:04.am, "C. E. White" <cewhi...@remove...............>
    wrote:
    > A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all
    > Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to
    > be a very low number to me. What do other think?
    >
    > I would have thought given Toyota's increase in sales over the last
    > twenty years they would have had more like 90% of the cars sold in the
    > last 20 years still on the road. Toyota sales have been increasing
    > over the last twenty years, so a higher percentage of Toyotas will be
    > newer models. Since a high percentage of Toyotas are newer vehicles
    > that are more likely to still be on the road, the overall percentage
    > of Toyotas sold in the last 20 years will be higher (becasue of the
    > newer car bias). For GM, the math works the other way. GM sales have
    > been stagnent or actually declining over the last 20 years, so a
    > higher percentage of their cars will be older and therefore less
    > likely to still be on the road. I am sure the 80% number is based on
    > registrations, so it might be that it over estimates the number
    > actually in daily use - or under estimates it in cases where cars are
    > used off road (or illeagally) and not registered.
    >
    > Does anyone have any actual numbers? I am confident that 100% of the
    > NEW vehicles I purchased in the last 20 years are still on the road,
    > but maybe I am an exception.
    >
    > Here is sort of what I am thinking....NOT REAL NUMBERS -
    >
    > For a manufacturer with increasing sales (5% increase per year)
    >
    > Year . . Original . Percent . .Total
    > Sold . . Sales . . .On road . .On Road
    > 1990 . . 500000 . . 33% . . .165000
    > 1991 . . 525000 . . 38% . . .199500
    > 1992 . . 551250 . . 43% . . .237038
    > 1993 . . 578813 . . 48% . . .277830
    > 1994 . . 607753 . . .53% . . 322109
    > 1995 . . 638141 . . .58% . . 370122
    > 1996 . . 670048 . . .63% . . 422130
    > 1997 . . 703550 . . .68% . . 478414
    > 1998 . . 738728 . . .72% . . 531884
    > 1999 . . 775664 . . .76% . . 589505
    > 2000 . . 814447 . . .80% . . 651558
    > 2001 . . 855170 . . .84% . . 718343
    > 2002 . . 897928 . . .88% . . 790177
    > 2003 . . 942825 . . .91% . . 857970
    > 2004 . . 989966 . . .93% . . 920668
    > 2005 . 1039464 . . .96% . . 997886
    > 2006 . 1091437 . . .97% . .1058694
    > 2007 . 1146009 . . .98% . .1123089
    > 2008 . 1203310 . . .99% . .1191277
    > 2009 . 1263475 . . .99% . .1250840
    > Total .16532977 . . 80% .13154033
    >
    > For a manufacturer with slightly decreasing sales (1% decrease per
    > year), but same percent still on the road:
    >
    > 1990 . . 1263475 . . 33% . . 416947
    > 1991 . . 1250840 . . 38% . . 475319
    > 1992 . . 1238332 . . 43% . . 532483
    > 1993 . . 1225949 . . 48% . . 588455
    > 1994 . . 1213689 . . 53% . . 643255
    > 1995 . . 1201552 . . 58% . . 696900
    > 1996 . . 1189537 . . 63% . . 749408
    > 1997 . . 1177641 . . 68% . . 800796
    > 1998 . . 1165865 . . 72% . . 839423
    > 1999 . . 1154206 . . 76% . . 877197
    > 2000 . . 1142664 . . 80% . . 914131
    > 2001 . . 1131238 . . 84% . . 950240
    > 2002 . . 1119925 . . 88% . . 985534
    > 2003 . . 1108726 . . 91% . . 1008941
    > 2004 . . 1097639 . . 93% . . 1020804
    > 2005 . . 1086662 . . 96% . . 1043196
    > 2006 . . 1075796 . . 97% . . 1043522
    > 2007 . . 1065038 . . 98% . . 1043737
    > 2008 . . 1054387 . . 99% . . 1043843
    > 2009 . . 1043843 . . 99% . . 1033405
    > Total . 23007003 . . 73% . 16707535
    >
    > The net is, manufacturers that have similar reliability can have
    > significantly different percentages of vehicles built in the last 20
    > years still on the road. Ergo, the Toyota's ad claim is at best
    > meaningless, at worst deliberately misleading....but then I've always
    > assumed that the Chevy (or sometimes Dodge) ads that clam their trucks
    > are the most reliable and longest lasting (based on registration data)
    > are deliberately misleading. So, I don't think Toyota is being
    > espeically misleading, but I wonder how many people understand the ad?
    > I'll bet many people think Toyota is saying 80% of 20 year old Toyotas
    > are still on the road, instead of 80% of the Toyotas sold in the last
    > twenty years....isn't marketing wonderful. There is a huge difference
    > in the two statements.
    >
    > Ed


    All of those old cars must be hiding somewhere because I hardly ever
    see any old ones on the road.

  8. #8
    Mike Hunter
    Guest Mike Hunter's Avatar

    Default What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?

    You certainly are entitled to your own opinion, Joe$#itForBrains, no mater
    how convoluted it may be. At least you are admitting that what I posted
    is factual LOL

    "Joe$#itForBrains" <newstrash@frontiernet.net> wrote in message
    news:XkGFm.6$qe6.5@newsfe14.iad...
    > "Mike Hunter" <Mikehunt2@lycos,com> wrote in message
    > news:4ae72deb$0$18744$ce5e7886@news-radius.ptd.net...
    >> If one really wants to see who actually has the vehicles with the longer
    >> overall longevity, go to some of the old car shows. Seldom will one see
    >> any of the Japanese sedans at those shows.
    >>
    >> Plenty of domestics sedans and sporty cars, as well as English and
    >> European old cars, even Italian cars. Rarely will one see anything from
    >> Toyota or the other Japanese manufactures, except a rare RX7or "Z" car.

    >
    >
    > Car shows are not a valid source of the statistics necessary for
    > determining longevity. You either didn't take a stats course, or you
    > failed the course you took.
    >

  9. #9
    Mike Hunter
    Guest Mike Hunter's Avatar

    Default What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?

    Why is that, are you watching for motorcycles?

    "m6onz5a" <corvair@............> wrote in message
    news:9fc98076-0844-447b-be90-844fb63296c4@e4g2000prn..............com...
    On Oct 27, 11:04 am, "C. E. White" <cewhi...@remove...............>
    wrote:
    > A Toyota commercial they are running in my area claims that 80% of all
    > Toyota sold in the last 20 years are still on the road. This seemed to
    > be a very low number to me. What do other think?
    >
    > I would have thought given Toyota's increase in sales over the last
    > twenty years they would have had more like 90% of the cars sold in the
    > last 20 years still on the road. Toyota sales have been increasing
    > over the last twenty years, so a higher percentage of Toyotas will be
    > newer models. Since a high percentage of Toyotas are newer vehicles
    > that are more likely to still be on the road, the overall percentage
    > of Toyotas sold in the last 20 years will be higher (becasue of the
    > newer car bias). For GM, the math works the other way. GM sales have
    > been stagnent or actually declining over the last 20 years, so a
    > higher percentage of their cars will be older and therefore less
    > likely to still be on the road. I am sure the 80% number is based on
    > registrations, so it might be that it over estimates the number
    > actually in daily use - or under estimates it in cases where cars are
    > used off road (or illeagally) and not registered.
    >
    > Does anyone have any actual numbers? I am confident that 100% of the
    > NEW vehicles I purchased in the last 20 years are still on the road,
    > but maybe I am an exception.
    >
    > Here is sort of what I am thinking....NOT REAL NUMBERS -
    >
    > For a manufacturer with increasing sales (5% increase per year)
    >
    > Year Original Percent Total
    > Sold Sales On road On Road
    > 1990 500000 33% 165000
    > 1991 525000 38% 199500
    > 1992 551250 43% 237038
    > 1993 578813 48% 277830
    > 1994 607753 53% 322109
    > 1995 638141 58% 370122
    > 1996 670048 63% 422130
    > 1997 703550 68% 478414
    > 1998 738728 72% 531884
    > 1999 775664 76% 589505
    > 2000 814447 80% 651558
    > 2001 855170 84% 718343
    > 2002 897928 88% 790177
    > 2003 942825 91% 857970
    > 2004 989966 93% 920668
    > 2005 1039464 96% 997886
    > 2006 1091437 97% 1058694
    > 2007 1146009 98% 1123089
    > 2008 1203310 99% 1191277
    > 2009 1263475 99% 1250840
    > Total 16532977 80% 13154033
    >
    > For a manufacturer with slightly decreasing sales (1% decrease per
    > year), but same percent still on the road:
    >
    > 1990 1263475 33% 416947
    > 1991 1250840 38% 475319
    > 1992 1238332 43% 532483
    > 1993 1225949 48% 588455
    > 1994 1213689 53% 643255
    > 1995 1201552 58% 696900
    > 1996 1189537 63% 749408
    > 1997 1177641 68% 800796
    > 1998 1165865 72% 839423
    > 1999 1154206 76% 877197
    > 2000 1142664 80% 914131
    > 2001 1131238 84% 950240
    > 2002 1119925 88% 985534
    > 2003 1108726 91% 1008941
    > 2004 1097639 93% 1020804
    > 2005 1086662 96% 1043196
    > 2006 1075796 97% 1043522
    > 2007 1065038 98% 1043737
    > 2008 1054387 99% 1043843
    > 2009 1043843 99% 1033405
    > Total 23007003 73% 16707535
    >
    > The net is, manufacturers that have similar reliability can have
    > significantly different percentages of vehicles built in the last 20
    > years still on the road. Ergo, the Toyota's ad claim is at best
    > meaningless, at worst deliberately misleading....but then I've always
    > assumed that the Chevy (or sometimes Dodge) ads that clam their trucks
    > are the most reliable and longest lasting (based on registration data)
    > are deliberately misleading. So, I don't think Toyota is being
    > espeically misleading, but I wonder how many people understand the ad?
    > I'll bet many people think Toyota is saying 80% of 20 year old Toyotas
    > are still on the road, instead of 80% of the Toyotas sold in the last
    > twenty years....isn't marketing wonderful. There is a huge difference
    > in the two statements.
    >
    > Ed


    All of those old cars must be hiding somewhere because I hardly ever
    see any old ones on the road.

  10. #10
    JoeSpareBedroom
    Guest JoeSpareBedroom's Avatar

    Default What percentage of 20 year old cars are on the road?

    What's to admit? That car shows happen and often contain old cars? That
    doesn't change the fact that a handful of old cars are statistically
    relevent.

    Sorry I used those big words. But it had to be done.

    "Mike Hunter" <Mikehunt2@lycos,com> wrote in message
    news:4ae73a66$0$29602$ce5e7886@news-radius.ptd.net...
    > You certainly are entitled to your own opinion, Joe$#itForBrains, no mater
    > how convoluted it may be. At least you are admitting that what I posted
    > is factual LOL
    >
    >
    > "Joe$#itForBrains" <newstrash@frontiernet.net> wrote in message
    > news:XkGFm.6$qe6.5@newsfe14.iad...
    >> "Mike Hunter" <Mikehunt2@lycos,com> wrote in message
    >> news:4ae72deb$0$18744$ce5e7886@news-radius.ptd.net...
    >>> If one really wants to see who actually has the vehicles with the longer
    >>> overall longevity, go to some of the old car shows. Seldom will one see
    >>> any of the Japanese sedans at those shows.
    >>>
    >>> Plenty of domestics sedans and sporty cars, as well as English and
    >>> European old cars, even Italian cars. Rarely will one see anything
    >>> from Toyota or the other Japanese manufactures, except a rare RX7or "Z"
    >>> car.

    >>
    >>
    >> Car shows are not a valid source of the statistics necessary for
    >> determining longevity. You either didn't take a stats course, or you
    >> failed the course you took.
    >>

    >
    >

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