Hypothetical question

5th June 2008, 12:43 AM

It's January 2010 and 95% of New Yorkers can't afford to pay $10 per gallon
of gas and decide to take transit instead.

Will the system be able to handle that many passengers? If not, what would
need to be done, and how long would it take?

5th June 2008, 06:23 AM

On Jun 5, 1:43 am, "Bernie Kovack" <berniekovac...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> It's January 2010 and 95% of New Yorkers can't afford to pay $10 per gallon
> of gas and decide to take transit instead.
>
> Will the system be able to handle that many passengers? If not, what would
> need to be done, and how long would it take?

How many more passe, er, "customers" is that than now? Maybe 50% more?
Less than that?

Staggered office hours would be helpful.

5th June 2008, 12:44 PM

>"Peter T. Daniels" <grammatim@verizon.net> wrote in message
>news:a00cad23-c27b-4a3f-83f2-04dc629b3c7c@t54g2000hsg.************.com...
>On Jun 5, 1:43 am, "Bernie Kovack" <berniekovac...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> It's January 2010 and 95% of New Yorkers can't afford to pay $10 per
> gallon
> of gas and decide to take transit instead.
>
> Will the system be able to handle that many passengers? If not, what would
> need to be done, and how long would it take?

>How many more passe, er, "customers" is that than now? Maybe 50% more?
>Less than that?

Maybe 50% of Manhattan, but not the entire metro area.

5th June 2008, 01:25 PM

On Jun 5, 1:44 pm, "Bernie Kovack" <berniekovac...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> >"Peter T. Daniels" <gramma...@verizon.net> wrote in message
> >news:a00cad23-c27b-4a3f-83f2-04dc629b3c7c@t54g2000hsg.************.com...
> >On Jun 5, 1:43 am, "Bernie Kovack" <berniekovac...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> > It's January 2010 and 95% of New Yorkers can't afford to pay $10 per
> > gallon
> > of gas and decide to take transit instead.
>
> > Will the system be able to handle that many passengers? If not, what would
> > need to be done, and how long would it take?
> >How many more passe, er, "customers" is that than now? Maybe 50% more?
> >Less than that?
>
> Maybe 50% of Manhattan, but not the entire metro area.

You didn't ask about "the entire metro area." Considerably less than
50% of New York City residents have a car (the figures are regularly
posted here), so considerably more than 50% of New Yorkers with jobs
either walk or take transit to their jobs. If 65% is the current
figure, then 95% represents a less than 50% increase.

5th June 2008, 04:12 PM

Peter T. Daniels wrote:
> On Jun 5, 1:44 pm, "Bernie Kovack" <berniekovac...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>> "Peter T. Daniels" <gramma...@verizon.net> wrote in message
>>> news:a00cad23-c27b-4a3f-83f2-04dc629b3c7c@t54g2000hsg.************.com...
>>> On Jun 5, 1:43 am, "Bernie Kovack" <berniekovac...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>> It's January 2010 and 95% of New Yorkers can't afford to pay $10 per
>>> gallon
>>> of gas and decide to take transit instead.
>>> Will the system be able to handle that many passengers? If not, what would
>>> need to be done, and how long would it take?
>>> How many more passe, er, "customers" is that than now? Maybe 50% more?
>>> Less than that?
>>
>> Maybe 50% of Manhattan, but not the entire metro area.
>
> You didn't ask about "the entire metro area." Considerably less than
> 50% of New York City residents have a car (the figures are regularly
> posted here), so considerably more than 50% of New Yorkers with jobs
> either walk or take transit to their jobs. If 65% is the current
> figure, then 95% represents a less than 50% increase.

According to Wikipedia, 54.35% of people in NYC take transit to work.
If that became 95%, it'd be a 75% increase. The system simply couldn't
take that unless workdays became a lot more flexible so that peak
traffic was more spread out.

Of course, NYC is in a better position to deal with it than most cities;
there are only 9 in the country where transit use is above 25% today,
and only 36 above 10%; most systems would simply collapse under the load
of 95% of the population switching to transit. OTOH, I don't think
$10/gal gas is enough for most people to do that, outside a few cities
like NYC, DC, and SF. It's simply not an option in most of the country,
so the choices are pay that price for gas or work from home.

S

7th June 2008, 10:30 AM

On Fri, 6 Jun 2008 08:30:04 -0400, "J.R.Guthrie"
<jguthrie1@nyc.rr.com> wrote:

> The availability of Amtrak service will also be a big boon --
>especially Richmond-Portland and to Harrisburg and Springfield.

Is that Richmond, VA or Richmond, CA?

Portland, ME or Portland, OR?

Springfield, IL or Springfield, MA?

--

"Stand Clear of the Closing Doors, Please"

Phil Kane - Beaverton, OR
PNW Milepost 755 - Tillamook District

7th June 2008, 11:49 AM

On Jun 7, 11:30 am, Phil Kane <Phil.K...@nov.shmovz.ka.pop> wrote:
> On Fri, 6 Jun 2008 08:30:04 -0400, "J.R.Guthrie"
>
> <jguthr...@nyc.rr.com> wrote:
> > The availability of Amtrak service will also be a big boon --
> >especially Richmond-Portland and to Harrisburg and Springfield.
>
> Is that Richmond, VA or Richmond, CA?
>
> Portland, ME or Portland, OR?
>
> Springfield, IL or Springfield, MA?

Why not Springfield, VT, where the Simpsons Movie premiere was?

7th June 2008, 02:37 PM

"Peter T. Daniels" <grammatim@verizon.net> wrote in message
news:755100e6-c6b6-4ba8-b116-> Is that Richmond, VA or Richmond, CA?
>
> Portland, ME or Portland, OR?
>
> Springfield, IL or Springfield, MA?

Well, look at a map. Which ones does Amtrak serve with some degree of
frequency that connects to the others?

.. . . and the list of cities with **some** electric traction is not
exhaustive, either . . . just examples.

In any case, citiesandtown and exosuburbs that are built on the economics of
cheap gasoline will hurt mightily. The biggest problem the Northeast will
have will be heating oil costs, because the legacy of anthracite is a
greater relative dependence on oil.

Cheers,
Jim

7th June 2008, 06:57 PM

On Sat, 7 Jun 2008 09:49:18 -0700 (PDT), "Peter T. Daniels"
<grammatim@verizon.net> wrote:

>> > The availability of Amtrak service will also be a big boon --
>> >especially Richmond-Portland and to Harrisburg and Springfield.
>>
>> Springfield, IL or Springfield, MA?
>
>Why not Springfield, VT, where the Simpsons Movie premiere was?

To the chagrin of Springfield, OR (a suburb of Eugene, reachable by
Amtrak Cascades and Coast Starlight) relatively near where Matt
Groening, the animator of The Simpsons, grew up in Portland, OR.
--

"Stand Clear of the Closing Doors, Please"

Phil Kane - Beaverton, OR
PNW Milepost 755 - Tillamook District

8th June 2008, 12:24 AM

On Jun 7, 7:57 pm, Phil Kane <Phil.K...@nov.shmovz.ka.pop> wrote:
> On Sat, 7 Jun 2008 09:49:18 -0700 (PDT), "Peter T. Daniels"
>
> <gramma...@verizon.net> wrote:
> >> > The availability of Amtrak service will also be a big boon --
> >> >especially Richmond-Portland and to Harrisburg and Springfield.
>
> >> Springfield, IL or Springfield, MA?
>
> >Why not Springfield, VT, where the Simpsons Movie premiere was?
>
> To the chagrin of Springfield, OR (a suburb of Eugene, reachable by
> Amtrak Cascades and Coast Starlight) relatively near where Matt
> Groening, the animator of The Simpsons, grew up in Portland, OR.

There are close to 50 Springfields in the US ... the east-west highway
to Spfld, IL, connects about 6 of them.