Luck versus odds

On May 8, 1:47 pm, Patrick <dickens12...m> wrote:
> Although my mind knows better, my heart seems to tell a different
> tale...
>
> Most gamblers seem to subscribe to some sort of momentum, or "run".
> You see poker players talking about going on a lucky run, blackjack
> and craps players talk about how "hot" or "cold" a dealer or table is,
> and even baccarat players tracking results to hopefully "predict"
> future outcomes.
>
> It all seems to fly in the face of true probability and odds, but most
> of us have seen it ourselves. I've played entire shoes where the
> dealer always seems to get the better of me, and other shoes where it
> seems I cannot lose a hand. So - as fallacious as "streakiness" is -
> it DOES seem to exist.
>
> Or does it?

Speaking as one who turned $9 into $600+ at a $3 Golden Gate craps
table, I would say runs, streaks, etc., most certainly do exist.

Cameron

On May 8, 11:47 am, Patrick <dickens12...m> wrote:
> Although my mind knows better, my heart seems to tell a different
> tale...
>
> Most gamblers seem to subscribe to some sort of momentum, or "run".
> You see poker players talking about going on a lucky run, blackjack
> and craps players talk about how "hot" or "cold" a dealer or table is,
> and even baccarat players tracking results to hopefully "predict"
> future outcomes.
>
> It all seems to fly in the face of true probability and odds, but most
> of us have seen it ourselves. I've played entire shoes where the
> dealer always seems to get the better of me, and other shoes where it
> seems I cannot lose a hand. So - as fallacious as "streakiness" is -
> it DOES seem to exist.
>
> Or does it?

They exist, alright: in hindsight.

The trick would be to PREDICT a streak, then surf it.

I know that at a craps table, if a player is hitting a lot of numbers
and not sevening out, that's the time to think about becoming more
aggressive.

roll dem bones

> It all seems to fly in the face of true probability and odds, but most
> of us have seen it ourselves. I've played entire shoes where the
> dealer always seems to get the better of me, and other shoes where it
> seems I cannot lose a hand. So - as fallacious as "streakiness" is -
> it DOES seem to exist.

Great question - What all craps shooters look for are short term
variants from the odds. We all know that in an infinite number of
rolls 7's, 6's, 5,s...all numbers will come up a definite number of
times, however, no one is going to stay at a craps table for an
infinite period of time. Therefore, we all look for the short-term
variations in the odds and label this a "lucky streak".

Craps shoooters also have some weird superstitions and beliefs that
when performed correctly bring a luck streak swooping into a table. My
favorite one of these involve the Sweedish bikini
team......err......maybe I should go into that now.

Remeber streak = variant

Good luck
DD