How disrupted is Mexico now?

The news I've been reading about Mexico's political turmoil is
disturbing. Guelagetza has been cancelled in Oaxaca, and the zocalo has
been closed at times.
Demonstrations in Mexico City have caused a shutdown of the historic
section, and lots of hotel cancellations. The loss in tourist spending
is said to be 23 million bucks per day!
Does anyone have any insight on what all is being effected throughout
the country, or predictions on what the outcome of the election
problems might be?
I love Mexico, and hate to see troubles befall all those nice folks
down there. It sounds pretty serious to me!
Don

"Don Lampson" <DonLampson@> wrote in message
news:5712-44D6DA26-1097@storefull-3135.bay....

> The news I've been reading about Mexico's political turmoil is
> disturbing. Guelagetza has been cancelled in Oaxaca, and the zocalo has
> been closed at times.
> Demonstrations in Mexico City have caused a shutdown of the historic
> section, and lots of hotel cancellations. The loss in tourist spending
> is said to be 23 million bucks per day!
> Does anyone have any insight on what all is being effected throughout
> the country, or predictions on what the outcome of the election
> problems might be?
> I love Mexico, and hate to see troubles befall all those nice folks
> down there. It sounds pretty serious to me!

This is a recent post I lifted from another group. The author is a
Mexican living in Mexico City.

"Zerge" <zerge@m> wrote in message
news:1154719364.679495.302110@m73g2000cwd. o...
>
>> No tourists have been reported hurt in Mexico City, Oaxaca or Acapulco,
>
> And none will. In Mexico City we have a bothersome, but totally pacific
> blockade of the main avenue, Reforma. You can actually visit Reforma as
> a tourist and take pictures if you feel like doing some safe,
> revolutionary tourism.
> Oaxaca is even MORE bothersome. I haven't been there, so I can't voice
> an opinion.
> As to Acapulco, come on. The only ones getting killed are drug dealers
> offing each other. That happens every day in the US. If you go to
> Acapulco and stay in the hotels, beaches, and tourist areas, and NOT
> wander into the lower barrios (which is dangerous not because of drug
> dealer shootings, but common thieves), you'll be fine.

The problem doesn't appear to be actual events, it's the reaction of
potential tourists. This all reminds me of my first visit to San Cristobal
de las Casas. We were very cautious because of the problems they had had
there and at that time there were still a lot of government road blocks in
the area. One of the first people we met was a musician who told us that
even at the height of the problems he had been working in the clubs along
with 15 other bands who were working into the small hours of the morning 6
nights a week, just as they always had.

To put the numbers in perspective, tourism is over 8% of Mexico's GDP.
These means they average over $163 million a day on tourism. Like many media
numbers the $23 million guesstimate sounds high to me, but it's a sure bet
that some Mexicans are experiencing real difficulties as a result of the
drop in tourism.

Outside of these few specific areas it appears to be business as usual.
There hasn't been the faintest sign of trouble in Sonora.

Predictions? The electoral board has said that AMLO isn't going to get
the full recount he wants. There may be recounts of some polling stations.
There are specific deadlines the electorial board is required to meet.
Eventually they will declare a winner and it's very unlikely to be AMLO.
Hopefully both he and his supports will begin to face reality at that point.
This could be the end of his political career so he isn't likely to give up
easily.

In Oaxaca the situation is less clear. In recent times the goverment has
been very reluctant to use force to end peaceful demonstrations. This
dispute could smoulder on for quite some time unless the new president
decides to take a more active role. In Acapulco and a number of other hot
spots it's likely that the drug dealers will continue to kill each other
well into the future. Tourism? Tourism will continue to be a fraction of
what it could be if Mexico could sucessfully address the many problems
affecting the industry.

TB

Oaxaca and Mexico City are what you may call hot spots right now, but
so far, Mexico City is mostly an anoying but peaceful blockade of some
(important) avenues. Oaxaca is almost the same but there are ocassional
vandals. If I would choose not to go somewhere it would be Oaxaca,
Mexico City is fine and the demontrations can ve avoided, rest of the
country is as usual.

Regards

Don Lampson wrote:
> The news I've been reading about Mexico's political turmoil is
> disturbing. Guelagetza has been cancelled in Oaxaca, and the zocalo has
> been closed at times.
> Demonstrations in Mexico City have caused a shutdown of the historic
> section, and lots of hotel cancellations. The loss in tourist spending
> is said to be 23 million bucks per day!
> Does anyone have any insight on what all is being effected throughout
> the country, or predictions on what the outcome of the election
> problems might be?
> I love Mexico, and hate to see troubles befall all those nice folks
> down there. It sounds pretty serious to me!
> Don

Timely discussion for me. I'm trying to decide whether to book a flight to
Mexico City around Aug 28. Recently AMLO and his supporters have spoken of
seizing the Airport. Any thoughts as to how this might impact me? I just
want to catch a bus from there towards Puebla. Thanks.


<raluxs@netscape.net> wrote in message
news:1154966634.211432.245670@n13g2000cwa. o...
> Oaxaca and Mexico City are what you may call hot spots right now, but
> so far, Mexico City is mostly an anoying but peaceful blockade of some
> (important) avenues. Oaxaca is almost the same but there are ocassional
> vandals. If I would choose not to go somewhere it would be Oaxaca,
> Mexico City is fine and the demontrations can ve avoided, rest of the
> country is as usual.
>
> Regards
>
> Don Lampson wrote:
> > The news I've been reading about Mexico's political turmoil is
> > disturbing. Guelagetza has been cancelled in Oaxaca, and the zocalo has
> > been closed at times.
> > Demonstrations in Mexico City have caused a shutdown of the historic
> > section, and lots of hotel cancellations. The loss in tourist spending
> > is said to be 23 million bucks per day!
> > Does anyone have any insight on what all is being effected throughout
> > the country, or predictions on what the outcome of the election
> > problems might be?
> > I love Mexico, and hate to see troubles befall all those nice folks
> > down there. It sounds pretty serious to me!
> > Don
>

Somehow I don't think they will, they are happily camping in the Zocalo
and Reforma Av. as Mexico City's major is also PRD and publicly stated
that he won't do anything to stop the demonstrations (blockades). But
the airport is Federal, and they don't want to make their mess there.

Good luck!

Mike Hanlon wrote:
> Timely discussion for me. I'm trying to decide whether to book a flight to
> Mexico City around Aug 28. Recently AMLO and his supporters have spoken of
> seizing the Airport. Any thoughts as to how this might impact me? I just
> want to catch a bus from there towards Puebla. Thanks.
>
>
> <raluxs@netscape.net> wrote in message
> news:1154966634.211432.245670@n13g2000cwa. o...
> > Oaxaca and Mexico City are what you may call hot spots right now, but
> > so far, Mexico City is mostly an anoying but peaceful blockade of some
> > (important) avenues. Oaxaca is almost the same but there are ocassional
> > vandals. If I would choose not to go somewhere it would be Oaxaca,
> > Mexico City is fine and the demontrations can ve avoided, rest of the
> > country is as usual.
> >
> > Regards
> >
> > Don Lampson wrote:
> > > The news I've been reading about Mexico's political turmoil is
> > > disturbing. Guelagetza has been cancelled in Oaxaca, and the zocalo has
> > > been closed at times.
> > > Demonstrations in Mexico City have caused a shutdown of the historic
> > > section, and lots of hotel cancellations. The loss in tourist spending
> > > is said to be 23 million bucks per day!
> > > Does anyone have any insight on what all is being effected throughout
> > > the country, or predictions on what the outcome of the election
> > > problems might be?
> > > I love Mexico, and hate to see troubles befall all those nice folks
> > > down there. It sounds pretty serious to me!
> > > Don
> >

I suspect in the months to come, there will be lots more
"disruptions" due to the election......
If the revenue from tourists drops very much, plenty of Mexicans will
see "El Norte" as a way out of their domestic strife, just when the US
is trying to stop the flow of illegals.....
We live in interesting times............
Don

"Don Lampson" <DonLampson@> wrote in message
news:23176-44DF268F-77@storefull-3132.bay....
> I suspect in the months to come, there will be lots more
> "disruptions" due to the election......
> If the revenue from tourists drops very much, plenty of Mexicans will
> see "El Norte" as a way out of their domestic strife, just when the US
> is trying to stop the flow of illegals.....
> We live in interesting times............

Interesting times indeed. But the election protests aren't likely to
be a significant factor all that long. There are already signs that they're
running out of steam. According to one account the Campeche delegation to
the protests in Mexico City is running out of money and may have to leave
soon. Some of the PRD's leadership is expressing concerns that the protests
may be damaging the party's credibility, making it look like a bunch of
radicals who cannot accept the rule of law. AMLO is talking about permanent
encampments in Mexico City, which could end up relegating him to the role of
being just another tourist attraction.

The partial recount is scheduled to end today. The official results
should be interesting, but they're unlikely to throw the election to AMLO
unless it results in a full recount. The early indications are that a tight
race has become even tighter. The electorial board has until September 6th
to either declare a winner or annul the election. It's very unlikely that
they'll annul the election. The Mexicans have put a lot of effort and money
into having fair elections. Many of them regard their own system as superior
to ours. There are a lot of indications that this may be an overstatement.
There were, for example, wide spread reports of vote buying. One study
estimated that 5% of the potential voters had been paid for their vote. All
three major parties were reported to be participating, but PAN and the PRI
had the most resources and experience in this area. There were reports of
people using cell phone cameras to photograph their ballots. All sorts of
reports are circulating about irregularities surfacing in the recount. This
should be an intereting week, with the official results of the partial
recount coming out. I expect that the Mexicans will make some adjustments to
their electorial system before the next presidential election.

If the election protests don't fizzle out on their own it's likely that
the federal government will step in. Mexico City is something of a special
case. The president could, for example, appoint a new police chief and short
circuit the mayor's non-intervention policy. At this point the speculation
is that Fox has been mostly staying out of it in the hopes that the
situation will take care of itself.

TB