Long term future of aviation

I was listening to an "expert" on the radio the other day. He was talking
about the crisis which will occur when we start to run out of oil in a few
decades. He said that although we may find alternative energy sources for
cars and most industry, there is not even any theoretical alternative to oil
for jets.

In other words, no oil, no planes. The complete cessation of all aviation.

Is this correct?

"Jim Ley" <jim@jibbering.com> wrote in message
news:3fa24292.332737040@news.cis.dfn.de...
>.
>
> Yes, we need to address oil reliance over the longer term, but to talk
> of few decades is misleading.

I'm certainly not trying to "mislead" anyone. I asked a question based on a
claim I heard from an "expert" on the radio. Forget the "decades" claim.
Maybe it's "centuries" (lucky for us, eh?). It *is* finite.

What happens what it runs out?

.... WHEN it runs out (of course!)

Nik wrote:
> Interesting question. I have thought about it as well. Perhaps you could use
> other kinds of no-fossil fuels in jet engines - perhaps extracted from
> bio-matter with the use of enzymes.

I can just see it now: cow manure powered planes. It won't be the noise local
residents will object to, but the smell whenever a plane takes off :-)

Perhaps they can find a way to generate alchool that has a high energy content.

They could switch to hydrogen, but that would mean that existing fuel tanks
would be useless and they'd need to put in pressurized tanks to store such gases.

Propane could also be used.

>>Because consumers keep sucking it up like there's a never ending supply.
>>The U.S. consumes millions and millions and MILLIONS of barrels a DAY.
>>Other than that, yeah, sure, it's gonna last forever.

> Are you reading what I wrote, my statement was refuting that the Oil
> would run out in "a few decades" - can you please explain why you feel
> that there are only a few decades supply of oil. Even at hefty
> increase in consumption, and no more oil found, current reserves are
> sufficient for many more than "a few decades". There's no desperate
> shortage of oil for air travel.

> Yes, we need to address oil reliance over the longer term, but to talk
> of few decades is misleading.


The supply of oil is an estimated, and also an unknown, quantity. Some of
you may recall that during the oil embargo of the early 70s the front range
of Colorado was opened for shale oil extraction. But the procedure only made
economic sense when the barrel price of oil went above (IIRC) $42. Steam
extraction (injecting steam into old wells to pump up the tar oil) is also
only profitable when oil barrel prices are on the high side.

Both situations are not lost on OPEC. Who recognize that when the oil
price climbs too high, petroleum products will be extracted via steam and
shale oil (or coal) processing. In addition, advances in related technologies
is lowering the cost for this oil extraction, particularly for shale oil.

Alternate energy sources may eventually lower the excessive petroleum
thirst of first world nations. Although at this time such technology
advances appear too closely tied to petroleum pricing. With the push for
alternate fuels only given a priority when petroleum pricing is favorable
for this research.

More than 60 years ago Germany was able to produce synthetic fuel from
anthracite coal with the Potts-Broche process. Newer technology can now
produce fuel from coal through a procedure which uses a mixture of solvents
combined with hydrogen gas. Which is worth noting only in reference to the
fact that North America has by far the largest amount of the worlds coal
reserves.

The issue may be stated not as running out of oil, but running out of
oil that can be extracted and profitable at less than $30 or $40 per
barrel.

Let's not get carried away. There is a great deal of fossil fuel out
there. The issue is economic. Much of the stuff is not i easily lifted
oil. For a price there will be no problem. After feedstock for
chemicals air transport will be a high value user. Prices will go up
access will not be a problem. FFM

Nik wrote:
> Interesting question. I have thought about it as well. Perhaps you could use
> other kinds of no-fossil fuels in jet engines - perhaps extracted from
> bio-matter with the use of enzymes. This is an area where there have been
> certain rather interesting - but no so well published - developments lately.
>
> However, I do believe that there must be some people at least among the
> engine manufacturers who have been thinking about this problems for some
> time! Nik.

> "vicdam" <vicdam@optusnet.com.au> wrote in message
> news:bnt684$15idse$1@ID-85568.news.uni-berlin.de...
>
>>I was listening to an "expert" on the radio the other day. He was talking
>>about the crisis which will occur when we start to run out of oil in a few
>>decades. He said that although we may find alternative energy sources for
>>cars and most industry, there is not even any theoretical alternative to
>> oil for jets.
>>
>>In other words, no oil, no planes. The complete cessation of all
>>aviation.

>>Is this correct?